Copenhagen Climate Report: “Inaction is inexcusable”
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has just released their latest ’synthesis’ report, titled “Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions”.
“We have covered new findings on climate science, climate impacts on society and the environment, and effective tools and approaches to deal with these challenges,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and member of the writing team. “The scientific findings presented in this update create by themselves a sense of urgency that we hope will lead the Copenhagen conference to success,” says Schellnhuber, who advises the German government on global change issues. In Copenhagen a follow-up to the Kyoto protocol will be debated.
The report delivers six key messages:
- Climatic Trends
Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.
- Social and environmental disruption
The research community provides much information to support discussions on “dangerous climate change”. Recent observations show that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.
- Long-term strategy – Global Targets and Timetables
Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change” regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly. Setting a credible long-term price for carbon and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies are central to effective mitigation.
- Equity Dimensions
Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and equitable mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable. Tackling climate change should be seen as integral to the broader goals of enhancing socioeconomic development and equity throughout the world.
- Inaction is inexcusable
Society already has many tools and approaches – economic, technological, behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. If these tools are not vigorously and widely implemented, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies will not be achieved. A wide range of benefits will flow from a concerted effort to achieve effective and rapid adaptation and mitigation. These include job growth in the sustainable energy sector; reductions in the health, social, economic and environmental costs of climate change; and the repair of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services.
- Meeting the Challenge
If the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge is to be achieved, then a number of significant constraints must be overcome and critical opportunities seized. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; reducing activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions and reduce resilience (e.g. subsidies); and enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society. Linking climate change with broader sustainable consumption and production concerns, human rights issues and democratic values is crucial for shifting societies towards more sustainable development pathways.
Inaction is inexcusable, and has been for years now. Denial and a head-in-the-sand approach to risk management is foolish at best, suicidal at worst. It’s certainly not good public policy. Arguments that delay the many and varied responses to climate change miss the point that there is no silver bullet, and no-one in their right minds says so. The global economy must be reformed. Externalities must be brought in from the cold and the emission of greenhouse gasses is one of the starkest externalities of all. You can be the change. — DS