Wilkins Ice Shelf cracking up
Map showing the Wilkins Ice Shelf
The hot news is that the collapse of the Wilkins Ice Shelf accelerated last weekend with some major new cracks. The whole shelf now hangs by a thread.
As the Wilkins Ice Shelf is at risk of breaking away from the Antarctic Peninsula, ESA’s Envisat satellite is observing the area on a daily basis. The satellite acquisitions of the ice shelf are updated automatically on this website to monitor the developments immediately as they occur.
In late November 2008, new rifts developed on the ice shelf that scientists warn could lead to the opening of the ice bridge that connects the ice shelf to the Charcot island. If the ice bridge were to open, it could put the entire ice shelf at risk of further disintegrating.
Over 30 years ago J H Mercer wrote a paper, published in Nature called “West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” where he made the point that:
If the global consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow at its present rate, atmospheric CO2 content will double in about 50 years. Climatic models suggest that the resultant greenhouse-warming effect will be greatly magnified in high latitudes. The computed temperature rise at lat 80° S could start rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica, leading to a 5 m rise in sea level.
In this paper (see Mercer, Nature, 1978, v271 pp.321-325) he said:
“One warning sign that a dangerous warming is beginning in Antarctica, will be a breakup of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula just south of the recent January 0C isotherm; the ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel on the east side of the peninsula, and the Wordie Ice Shelf; the ice shelf in George VI Sound, and the ice shelf in Wilkins Sound on the west side.”
Australia’s Federal Environment Minister today has linked this latest collapse to global warming, saying:
“I don’t think that there’s any doubt that global warming is contributing to what we’ve seen both on the Wilkins Ice Shelf and also more generally in Antarctica,” he said.
“And it is the case that scientists, because of the fact of the Antarctic’s unique and critical role in the world’s climate system, are focusing very strongly on climate change research and also potential impacts.
“This is a really significant mass of ice and it is the case that scientists previously had identified that it might potentially start to break away or collapse and that that would be as a consequence of warming.”
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has some great video on this today.
So what is to be done? Clearly sticking our heads in the sand and maintaining a ‘business as usual’ attitude is leading us into the age of consequences the scientific community has been warning us about for at least 30 years. The recent G20 washout was a serious disappointment for those of us who really do want to see a future for our planet and it’s occupants. I wonder what scale of disaster it will take to galvanise the ‘war effort’ like response the world needs. — DS