Tony Blair’s ‘Breaking The Climate Deadlock’ speech
Part 1
Part 2
Tony Blair’s ‘Breaking The Climate Deadlock’ speech is a great speech. He’s much more casual now he’s not in office and his candour shines in this talk. He argues that the science is settled, we understand full well that it is the rise of the west that has been the cause of the mess, and it is justice that western nations clean this mess up before a planetary catastrophe hits and kills us all. But he warns that the climate itself is blind to justice and the environmental, social and economic consequences will rain down much harder on the developing world. But the reality is that the world won’t survive the finger-pointing if we don’t move on the knowledge we have immediately.
He cautions that to incorporate genuine environmental sustainability into the whole world’s economy requires a transformational, even revolutionary effort. And he says, we know this. We understand this. What do we do about it?
Blair’s project, the ‘Breaking The Climate Deadlock‘ Initiative, seeks to answer that very question.
The full report launched in the videos above makes the following key points on page 6. The rest is just detail.
Some insist that 2020 is the latest peaking moment we can permit, beyond which damage to the climate will become irreversible; some, though generally not in the scientific community, say 2025 or even 2030 may be permissible.
Then there are important facts and deep political realities that we can easily miss.
- Energy efficiency would provide around one quarter of the gains necessary and, incidentally, save money, but its significance is often ignored.
- The vast majority of new power stations in China and India will be coal-fired; not “may be coal-fired”; will be. So developing carbon capture and storage technology is not optional, it is literally of the essence.
- Without at least some countries engaging in a substantial renaissance of nuclear power, it is hard to see how any global deal could work.
- Around 70-80 percent of the current stock of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere was created by the developed world.
- But if the US meets the boldest targets for reductions while China continues on its present path, and India follows, the climate will still suffer irreversible damage.
- For developing countries to grow sustainably they will need funds and technology, otherwise they will not be able to peak and then reduce emissions within the necessary timescale.
- Deforestation amounts to around 15-20 percent of the entire emissions problem.
- Certain key sectors like cement, steel and of course power most of all, account for a huge percentage – almost half of all emissions.
- Airline and shipping emissions, though only 5 percent today, are a fast growing part of the problem.
- Done right, the costs of abatement will be manageable and probably less than predicted; and there are potentially real opportunities for the new low-carbon economy that will develop.
There is another crucial political reality. The science is developing all the time. The one certain thing is that what is said today, in 2008, will not be quite the same as what is said by the time of Copenhagen, let alone in 2012 or 2015. Our knowledge is growing the whole time. Another pretty safe prediction: technology will develop in ways we cannot predict. But, for sure, if a clear set of incentives are given, the market will respond, human creativity and ingenuity will get to work, answers will be given tomorrow that cannot be contemplated today.
It’s a bold plan, a fast plan and one I think we need to stave off disaster. It’s also the biggest opportunity for global social reform the world has seen. It’s the ‘aliens invade’ moment when you know the world has just changed for ever. Will you prosper or perish?
Download the full report at Tony’s own website. — DS
