Garnaut’s Interim Report is Out
In April 2007, Professor Garnaut, a Professor of Economics in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University, was commissioned by the Australian States and Territories, and more recently the Commonwealth Government, to undertake a review examining the impact of climate change on the Australian economy and potential medium to long-term policies to ameliorate these.
The Review will examine the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, and recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity.
Professor Garnaut’s Interim Report was released yesterday and it makes for fascinating reading. In summary:
Developments in mainstream scientific opinion on the relationship between emissions accumulations and climate outcomes, and the Review’s own work on future “business as usual” global emissions, suggest that the world is moving towards high risks of dangerous climate change more rapidly than has generally been understood. This makes mitigation more urgent and more costly. At the same time, it makes the probable effects of unmitigated climate change more costly, for Australia and for the world.
Australia should make firm commitments in 2008, to 2020 and 2050 emissions targets that embody similar adjustment cost to that accepted by other developed countries. A lead has been provided by the European Union, and there are reasonable prospects that the United States will become part of the main international framework after the November 2008 elections. Some version of the current State and Federal targets of 60 per cent reduction by 2050, with appropriate interim targets, would meet these requirements.
Australia must now put in place effective policies to achieve major reductions in emissions. The emissions trading scheme (ETS) is the centre-piece of a domestic mitigation strategy. To achieve effective mitigation at the lowest possible cost, the ETS will need to be supported by measures to correct market failures or weaknesses related to innovation, research and development, to information, and to network infrastructure.
To be effective in contributing as much as possible to an effective global effort to avoid unacceptably high risks of dangerous climate change, soundly based domestic and international policies will need to be sustained steadily over long periods. Policy-makers will need to eschew short-term responses that seem to deal with immediate problems but contribute to the building of pressures for future policy change. The Review aims to provide the basis for steady long-term policy at Commonwealth and State levels, and for productive long-term Australian interaction with the international community on climate change policy.
The Garnaut Review is Australia’s answer to the Stern Review that came out of the UK over a year ago. The conclusions are pretty much in line with that landmark document. The final review is not out until September and I am sure many of the finer details will be debated by the powers that be. Meanwhile responsible business groups will be making their plans now, rather than putting off what seems inevitable. — DS
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